TIVP032: Remitly (RELY): Future Multibagger or Stablecoin Casualty? w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O’Malley

Daniel & Shawn dive into Remitly, the digital remittance platform aiming to disrupt a $2 trillion global market. After years of prioritizing customer acquisition and corridor expansion over profits, Remitly is now approaching a critical inflection point, one where scale, margin leverage, and cash generation could unlock a new phase of investor confidence. But there are risks as well: crypto-native challengers, regulatory uncertainty, and broader concerns about the remittance industry all raise the question of whether the upside is worth the risk. Here, they unpack Remitly’s moat, including its direct payout network, risk engine, and customer trust, and assess whether these factors are enough to fend off cheaper, faster payment rails, such as stablecoins. They walk through the company’s unit economics and what the valuation model implies under both steady-state and high-growth scenarios. Along the way, they compare Remitly’s customer lock-in strategy to Booking.com, examine the remit...