2025 AI reality check: Are we in a bubble?

<p>At the start of the year, I made seven predictions about how 2025 would unfold. Six months in, it's time to mark my own work. From AI capability breakthroughs to autonomous vehicles, climate extremes to workforce transformation, I examine what I got right, what I missed, and why the 2027-2028 period will be when vertical AI hits the real economy in force.</p><p><strong>In this episode you’ll hear:</strong></p><ul><li>The AI wall that never came: Ten-million-token models exist, O3 scores 25% on Frontier Math vs GPT-4's 2%, but some models are inconsistent and overthink problems</li><li>When bots officially out-talk humans: My modeling shows LLMs crossed the threshold of producing more text than humans sometime this summer</li><li>The Waymo vs Uber SF battle: They've beaten Lyft and expanded to New York, but Tesla's Austin robo-taxi fleet changes the competitive landscape</li><li>Climate and energy predictions that were "too easy": Record climate extremes, 30% solar growth, and Indone...