AGI is still 30 years away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu - Dwarkesh Podcast

<a target="_blank" href="https://www.lesswrong.com/users/ege-erdil">Ege Erdil</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://tamaybesiroglu.com/">Tamay Besiroglu</a> have 2045+ timelines, think the whole "alignment" framing is wrong, don't think an intelligence explosion is plausible, but are convinced we'll see explosive economic growth (economy literally doubling every year or two).This discussion offers a totally different scenario than <a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/scott-daniel">my recent interview with Scott and Daniel</a>.Ege and Tamay are the co-founders of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.mechanize.work/">Mechanize</a> (disclosure - I’m an angel investor), a startup dedicated to fully automating work. Before founding Mechanize, Ege and Tamay worked on AI forecasts at <a target="_blank" href="https://epoch.ai/">Epoch AI</a>. Watch on <a target="_blank" href="https://youtu.be/WLBsUarvWTw">Youtube</a>; listen on <a target="_blank" href="...